Mitt Romney

Romney returned to Massachusetts to run for governor. He won and had a successful first term. He chose not to seek reelection in 2006, presumably in order to focus on preparing a Presidential campaign.

Rhetorically gifted Deval Patrick upset an establishment candidate for the Democratic nomination and easily won the general election to become the state's first black governor.

Suppose Romney had braved the odds and defeated a charismatic black challenger in a Democratic year. He would have entered the 2008 primaries as the sitting conservative governor of a liberal state. He would have been the natural candidate to oppose Obama (and his record would have have been clearly stronger than Hillary's). Picking Palin as VP would have secured the support of the religious right and swung a few female votes. IMO his chances would have been far better than McCain's (and don't forget that McCain had taken a small lead before his intemperate reaction to the financial crisis). IMO the financial crisis would have strengthened his candidacy.

The moral also applies to Hillary 2004:

He either fears his fate too much,
Or his deserts are small,
That dares not put it to the touch
To win or lose it all.

Obama's First Inaugural Address

The text is here.

In contrast to many online reactions, I liked it at first reading. (Is much of the widespread negative tone online due to the fact that it's easier to criticize than to formulate something defensibly constructive?)

A key paragraph:

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus — and nonbelievers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

As an American exceptionalist in my fashion, I was pleased to read that. IMO a major, essential part of American exceptionalism is the USA's unique opportunity to become a template for a modern post-tribal society.

Unfortunately, I do not see how creating protected classes and quotas--almost fifty years after the Civil Rights Act of 1964--is a step in this direction. It is necessary to accentuate tribal distinctions in order to dissolve them? Ben Tre logic?

Martin Luther King Day

My gut impression: King does not strike me as a great moral leader. He strikes me as a great political leader who harvested a ripe moral issue.

This is meant as objectivity, not as criticism.

Can't Anybody Here Play This Game?

Bank of America, which supposedly was going to save Merrill Lynch's role in the financial system, now wants more TARP money to absorb Merrill's losses. After its stock nearly tripled from its recent low, Citicorp is plunging again.

Barney Frank and Phil Gramm have indignantly declared themselves blameless. Bernanke is an expert on the Great Depression, but he let Lehman fail. Paulson was going to buy up troubled assets, and then he wasn't. (Geithner didn't do his taxes correctly.)

This as though we'd broken the Japanese code in 1940 and then let Pearl Harbor happen anyway.

Addendum. Someone--I didn't save the link--argued that a binding government guarantee to cover unforeseen Merrill losses must have been part of the inducement for BofA to do the acquisition. Plausible but not compelling, IMO.

Instapundit and Porkbusters

Glenn Reynolds harrumphs about government waste and links to the Porkbusters site. As I type, its front page has not been updated since 2* May 2008. About Porkbusters:

Porkbusters was conceived of by Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit fame in the fall of 2005. Seeking help implementing his vision, he approached N.Z. Bear (now "out of the bear cave" and known also by his given name, Rob Neppell) and Porkbusters.org was born.

Ah, yes, a visionary. Experience has made "visionary" a dirty word to me...

I liked Instapundit a lot more when Reynolds had the 'If you have a modem, I have an opinion' logo.

Tax the Internet and Save the Planet!

The logical but (as-yet) unspoken corollary to this.

Addendum. Times commenter Don L of Hartford, CT anticipated the above post, using words identical to my title.

Addendum 20090114. US News reports that both Google and Alex Wissner-Gross, the author "quoted" by the UK Times, dispute the report. Network World:

Wissner-Gross said he did discuss Google with the newspaper in broad generalizations, in that Google uses energy, and that the generation of that energy would cause CO2 to be released.

However, Wissner-Gross said one of The Sunday Times writers seemed eager to confirm the seven-gram figure and link it to Google. The researcher said he did not do so. Wissner-Gross said he saw a draft of the story before publication and suggested some changes, but those edits were not made.

Efforts to reach the writers at The Sunday Times were unsuccessful.

How shocking to learn that a major newspaper might be slanting the news according to a predetermined agenda...

Climate Change

Several bloggers have noted that the Huffington Post, of all places, has published a slam against Gore and his shtick.
*********************************
IMO the real issue is not whether warming--ditto for cooling--is real and (if real) humanly caused. The real issue is whether we can make a determination with enough confidence to warrant immediate reengineering of our economy.

I don't question that there are forces that tend to warm (or cool) the earth. I don't doubt that the magnitude of each of these can be estimated reasonably well, but I am dubious that the short- and long-term feedbacks can be adequately quantified. I doubt that every relevant force has been identified.

And I am completely unconvinced that reliable predictions can be made about the resultant of offsetting forces.

It's possible that in the foreseeable future the climate will continue muddling along; it's possible that warming or cooling will emerge as an overriding ecological threat. However, it would be foolish or worse to reconfigure our civilization on the basis of what is understood today.

Roger Ehrenberg

After I've been thinking a semblance of normalcy is returning and watching the stock market move upward, this is chilling:

...the economic underpinnings of the US have become so fractured that it risks being marginalized on the global stage. This "change in fundamentals" that is creeping up on us? Our creditor's willingness to hold dollar-denominated assets in general and to finance our persistent budget deficits in particular. This is the real credit crisis facing the US.

Why are things different this time? The Great Depression is held up as the singular economic event in the US to be avoided at all costs. The Government put "safety nets" in place to help those who cannot help themselves in difficult times. But this doesn’t tell the whole story. We, as a nation, have been spending far beyond our means for generations; so much so, in fact, that the purported safety nets place a greater risk to our future than the risks they were created to avoid...

(Boldface mine.)

Bad News and Good News

The bad news: Whatever Happened to Silicon Valley Innovation?, asks Business Week.

Since Business Week covers have a reputation as contrary indicators, the good news is that What's Wrong With Silicon Valley (And How To Make It Right) is this week's cover.
******************
I wonder whether much--not all--of what Silicon Valley has done should be called exploitation rather than innovation. In particular, I'm thinking about the creation and basic infrastructure of the Internet. Libertarian purists are not keen to note that the Net is a child of the military-industrial complex.

I'm No Fan of This Guy, but He Has a Point

Chris Weigant:

Two images will bookend the history of George W. Bush and Iraq: the "Mission Accomplished" banner, and an Iraqi journalist throwing his shoes at Bush's head.

Some would prefer a photo of Bush being led away in chains and orange pajamas, but IMO such criminalization of foreign-policy decisions would significantly accelerate our decline.

Find a rationale to throw him in jail for gross economic mismanagement and you've got my attention.

Obama's Chiseled Pecs

The Anchoress comments.

Is this the subliminal message that Obama's MSM acolytes are trying to convey? Talk about a photoshop op!

Last year similar photos of Putin appeared. Is it just me, or does his body look more brutally functional than Obama's?

This Man Hath the Right Sow By the Ear*

Secular Right commenter Polichinello:

IOW, an argument for any given issue–abortion, gay “marriage”, euthanasia, etc–should not start and end with “Because God said so.” It should be based on and explicated with evidence and reason available to anyone, and if you can’t do that, then so much the worse for the argument.

He's commenting on Kathleen Parker, a columnist about whom the little I know leaves me with no wish to know more.
-----------
*H/T: Henry VIII.

Good News! No Depression Ahead...Probably

Intrade currently has the chance of a 2009 US depression as less than one in seven (down from one in five around election time).

At the moment the contract is currently on the front page. Alternatively, click on 'Financial' in the lefthand column of the front page. Then click on 'Economic Numbers' in the subheading.

Addendum. Back when all seemed under control, NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini sounded the alarm about the crisis and earned the nickname 'Dr. Doom'. He believes the worst is still to come but does not expect a depression.

Addendum 20081225. The Intrade chance of a 2009 depression has risen to 30%.

Ho ho ho.

The GOP's Parasites Still[1] Remain in Charge

The House Republicans just defeated a leadership proposal to forego earmarks for three months.

To the devil with those worthless parasites.

Speaking of the devil, Mike Huckabee, "the Christian candidate", has stated that libertarians are a threat to conservatism and the GOP. Yes, libertarians.
------------
[1] Original post here.

Trickle-Down Biotech?

Glenn Reynolds:

But what’s really nice about today’s world is that lots of things that were luxuries a few years ago are cheap — flat-screen HDTVs for under $500, for example. It’s possible to live quite well, even luxuriously in many respects, by the standards of previous decades on not all that much money, if you don’t insist on having the biggest, latest and trendiest.

This should be a model for the research and deployment of medical treatments.

Should be but won't. The political demagogic class will never tolerate having a life-saving treatment restricted to "the rich" even though the restriction is temporary--and the alternative, if any, is a slowed development cycle.

Million-Year Plan

The EPA has changed its mind about requiring a ten-thousand year assurance that Yucca Mountain will be a safe nuclear repository. It now requires a million-year assurance.

Are these people being paid off by interests like the Saudis, are they treasonous fanatics, are they callous cynics feathering their nests at the expense of society, or are they plain stupid? (Some of each, presumably.)

Piracy

An Iranian grain ship is the latest to be seized.

Fortunately, the intelligentsia is on the case:

Roger Middleton, a Horn of Africa specialist at the Chatham House think-tank, said that the capture was a crucial escalation. “Now that they have shown they are able to seize an enormous ship like this, it is beyond a military solution. You won’t fix this without a political solution.”

Actually, you could create a desolation and call it peace. On both practical and moral grounds, I don't favor that course at the moment, but you aren't thinking clearly if you don't put it on the list of options.
*************
Wait till pirates seize a cruise ship and demand a billion-dollar ransom.

Obviously there are not too many cruises near Somalia, but Haiti and similar Caribbean hellholes are possible staging areas.
************
The linked story claims that the Somali government is about to collapse as regrouped Islamists converge on the capital.

Was this in effect a repeat of Iraq? Did we engineer the ouster of the Islamists without giving thought to what would happen next?

Addendum 20090426. The foregoing was in the ballpark:

The captain of an Italian cruise ship carrying 1,500 passengers says his security staff fought off a pirate attack in the Indian Ocean with pistols and a water hose.

I underestimated either the pirates' technology or the cruise line's imprudence. Thank heaven the pirates were repelled. I hope, but am not confident, that there will not be investigations, by governments or NGOs, of 'disproportionate response'.

Cloning Frozen Mice

Japanese scientists have done it with mice that had been frozen for 16 years..

Will extinct species be next? The article quite properly expresses daunting reservations, but I remember when freezing supposedly did irreversible damage to cells.

The prospect of restoring the mammoths gives me chills.

Addendum. According to the NYT, a mammoth might be (re)created for as little as $10M. A Neanderthal might be possible although the means currently available, if I understand the article correctly, exacerbate the serious ethical issues.

Coming Soon: Living in a Computer Simulation

Mirror's Edge is an action video game. Its body-centered perspective is so realistic that players are said to vomit from vertigo.

Much much more is coming along such lines. For example, climb mountains in a virtual-reality body suit at reduced (or increased!) gravity. Climb Olympus Mons, for that matter.

And who needs human modes of locomotion? Maximize efficiency by training drivers, pilots, and operators to have a vehicle- or machine-centric perspective.

And who needs human bodies when just the brain is doing the work?

Etc. Much much more to come.

Obvious Words, Well Written

Bill Kristol writes that the GOP governors' meeting was constructive but somehow failed to confront the failed Bush economic legacy:

From 1933 to 1980, Republicans repeatedly failed to convince the country they were no longer the party of Herbert Hoover — the party, as it was perceived, of economic incompetence, austerity and recession (if not depression).

Only two Republicans won presidential elections in that half-century, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard M. Nixon. Both were able to take the White House only because we were mired down in difficult wars, in Korea and Vietnam. And Ike and Nixon were unable — they didn’t really try — to change the generally liberal course of domestic and economic policy. The G.O.P.’s fate on Capitol Hill was worse. The party controlled Congress for only 4 of those 47 years.

That’s what happens when a depression begins on your watch and when you can’t offer a coherent explanation of how and why it occurred and what you are going to do differently. That’s what happens when instead of having such an explanation, you spend decades in quarrels between pragmatic but unimaginative moderates who seek to be better tax collectors for the liberal welfare state, and principled but fanciful conservatives who hope for a wholesale rejection of that welfare state. And the fact that there were many successful Republican governors in those years didn’t much change the party’s status nationally.

The whole piece is worth reading.

Gitmo: Mend It, Don't End It

Next time the executives of a bailed-out bank give themselves bonuses while assuring us that government dollars weren't used...whoosh!

As for the prosperous respectable people, well hidden in the shadows, who suborned the government to open the border and flood the country with illegal aliens: lock 'em up! (Not the illegals, but the people who invited them. The fact that the illegals were invited is one of the toughest aspects of how to deal with them.)

Addenda. Who else deserves to go?

Bush, obviously.

Phil Gramm.

Barney Frank.

I'll give Greenspan probation because he voluntarily admitted he was wrong.

Hedge Fund Day at the House of Representatives

The House Committee on Oversight is holding hearings on the financial crisis. Thursday was Hedge Fund Day. According to George Soros,

The race to save the international financial system is still ongoing. Even if it is successful, consumers, investors, and businesses are undergoing a traumatic experience whose full impact on global economic activity is yet to be felt. A deep recession is now inevitable and the possibility of a depression cannot be ruled out. When I predicted earlier this year that we were facing the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, I did not anticipate that conditions would deteriorate so badly.

Otoh, Soros the trader is known to change his mind in a twinkling and reverse his positions accordingly.

(An old hand at testifying before Congress, Soros used the occasion to market his latest book. Not to be outdone, Indiana Republican Mark Souder took the opportunity to rant in favor of the War on Drugs.)

Addendum.The first link above is a generic link to the committee's continually updated hearings page. The committee held hearings on Lehman, AIG, rating agencies, regulation, and hedge funds.

Good Humor

Americans have always despised each other, so I'm not unduly upset by the elites' putdowns of flyover country; what gets my goat is the cloddish way the supposed sophisticates go about it. The NY Times' photo of 'Jeb Mason, the Treasury’s liaison to businesses...32, a lanky Texan in black cowboy boots who once worked in the White House for Karl Rove' is an artistic exception.

Toward Regeneration of Body Parts

The technique is called nanoscaffolding. The latest progress comes from US Army efforts, but research is ongoing around the world.

Wow. It's impossible to resist speculating where this might go:

What about replacing body parts lost to disease or surgery? What about in vitro?

Minor Afterthoughts to the Election

Kathryn Jean Lopez quotes a National Review staffer. The whole thing is worthwhile but this caught my eye:

2) Where was Bush? Once again, and right to the bitter end, he let his passion for "loyalty" supersede what was stragetically right for the party, not to mention what was best for the country. I think his reputation has nowhere to go but down; yes, he got one big thing right, but he got everything else wrong. Enough of this family in our country's politics!

If Bush had campaigned, IMO the loss would have been bigger, and I don't know how his passion for loyalty played a role in the election. Above all, this requires a correction:

I think his reputation has nowhere to go but down; yes, maybe he got one big thing partly right, but he got everything else wrong.

Fixed it.

And I couldn't agree more with the good-riddance to Liddy Dole. My immediate and never mitigated reaction to her was instinctive loathing.

Shielding Space Travelers From Solar Storms

Apparently the Europeans have devised a compact magnetic shield. A simulation was reported here. Preliminary measurements are reported here.

I've read that passengers on a space elevator passing through the Van Allen belts would be endangered by radiation, and that strength of the elevator material could be endangered by radiation-produced defects. Might the magnetic technology be adapted to this situation?

The Palin Prank

Ouch: here, here, here, and here.

I don't want to believe she's a hick with a glassy smile & cheerleader persona, but you don't always get what you want...

Sarah Quaylin?

Atlas and I

Jennifer Rubin interviews Orrin Hatch. The whole piece consists of Hatch warning how bad the Democrats are. Rubin does not report what Hatch said about why the GOP lost Congress in 2006, or what the GOP is doing to regain the confidence of the electorate. I suspect that Hatch had nothing to say because the Republican establishment does not care as long as they retain their privileged positions. Given their criticism of the MSM for their being in the tank for Obama, I hope Pajamas Media asked Hatch such obvious questions.

The phrase 'Atlas Shrugged' is being revived to describe how productive Americans may react to a redistributionist Democrat government. It also describes my reaction to a GOP which feels entitled to my support because, supposedly, they wouldn't wreck the country quite as fast as the Democrats would.

This Is Victory?

McClatchy reports:

WASHINGTON — Two years ago, President Bush hailed Najim al Jabouri as a symbol of success in the battle to curb Iraq's sectarian violence. Today, Jabouri is a symbol of how uncertain that success is.

Last month, Jabouri quietly left Tal Afar, an ancient city near Iraq's desert border with Syria where he was the police chief and the mayor, collected his wife and four children and flew to safety in the United States.

Unfortunate, but at least the war was self-financing, right...?

And things are going great in Afghanistan, right?

And we showed Iran who's boss, right?

A Throw of the Dice for the Alaska GOP?

Ted Stevens has been found guilty. The conventional wisdom is that he will now lose his reelection bid and the GOP will lose the seat.

Suppose, for the good of the country and the party & in order to concentrate on the next phase of his his defense, Stevens pledged to resign after being reelected. Would Palin appoint his replacement? Would that sway Alaska voters? Could Stevens be...incentivized...to pledge resignation and held to his commitment?

Addendum. According to Alaska law, Palin could appoint a temporary replacement but a special election would be held within 2-3 months.

Bush's Economic Stewardship: A Grudgingly Mitigative Point

Until recently, the S&P 500 has been well above its historical norm.

Which in no way excuses the spending...

Palin and the Campaign Staff

The Politico reports:

And the final straw for Palin and her allies was the news that the campaign had reported spending $150,000 on her clothes, turning her, again, into the butt of late-night humor.

"She never even set foot in these stores," the senior Republican said, noting Palin hadn't realized the cost when the clothes were brought to her in her Minnesota hotel room.

The McCain campaign retaliates:

A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

So, Senator Gang-of-14, how does the maverick stuff feel when you're on the receiving end? (Assuming you're even aware of what's going on and what your staff is leaking.) CNN:

Palin's 'going rogue,' McCain aide says

"Her lack of fundamental understanding of some key issues was dramatic," said another McCain source with direct knowledge of the process to prepare Palin after she was picked. The source said it was probably the "hardest" to get her "up to speed than any candidate in history."

And what did you expect when you picked a low-population-state governor who'd served less than two years of her first term?

Back to the Politico:

Palin's loyalists say she's grown particularly disenchanted with the veterans of the Bush reelection campaign, including Schmidt and Wallace, and that despite her anti-intellectual rhetoric, her closest ally among her new traveling aides is a policy adviser, former National Security Council official Steve Biegun. She's also said to be close with McCain's chief foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, who prepared her for the Oct. 2 vice presidential debate.

That's a constructive sign. If Palin is to have a positive future, she needs to create an intellectual basis for her instincts.
-------------
I've been getting disenchanted with Palin, but, okay, I'll give her a pass about the clothes and the make-up. My concerns about her spending and her immigration position remain.

My concerns about McCain have been resolved: I flat-out think he shouldn't be President.

A Dinocrat Rarity

A bad post.

Iirc Yahoo! Finance was flogging this "issue" a few days ago. The linked Bloomberg article is terrible too. Then again, 'Hedge Funds Experience Redemptions Despite Outperformance' would be a less gripping headline than 'Hedge Fund Withdrawals Stress Market; Citadel Reassures Clients'.

It opens with:

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds are aggravating the worst market selloff in 50 years as they dump assets to meet investor redemptions and keep lenders at bay.

Aggravating a selloff...tsk, tsk, naughty, naughty. Record mutual fund redemptions...not mentioned.

"With the average hedge fund down 18 percent this year", you'd think that Bloomberg would add that the typical mutual fund is down about twice that, as is the S&P 500. Bloomberg doesn't.

I hope that the Bloomberg article is merely slovenly reportage and not the kind of agenda-driven "journalism" that is so flagrant this election year.

Redistribution Preview

A server at a restaurant wore an Obama tie, but he was not happy when told his tip would be given to the homeless person outside who "needed it more".

This might be an even more effective demonstration, if a legal way to do it could be found: the customer tips the waiter; then, as the waiter leaves the table, a couple of heavies waylay him, take away the tip, give some of it to the homeless guy and some back to the waiter, and keep the rest as expenses for services rendered.

Pit Bull Mike Huckabee with Lipstick?

USA Today reports:

WASHINGTON — Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin calls herself a fiscal conservative who wants to "rein in government spending." She says she "reformed the abuses of earmarks in our state." Republican John McCain said during the last debate that his running mate has "cut the size of government."

But Palin didn't cut the size of government as mayor of Wasilla, and she hasn't done so as Alaska's governor, city and state budget records show. Spending in fast-growing Wasilla increased by 55% during her tenure from 1996-2002, records show. In nearly two years as governor, she has presided over a 31% spending hike by a state government that sought earmarks from Washington even as it reaped billions from higher oil prices and Palin-backed tax increases on oil companies.

Bill McAllister, a governor's office spokesman in Alaska, said the state lived through painful budget cuts in the 1990s when low oil prices restricted revenue. "There's an element of catch-up here," he said.

The rate of spending growth in Wasilla is up to twice as high as the rate of population growth.

Why didn't the Democrats cite facts like this instead of making vicious personal attacks against Palin? Maybe some Democratic constituencies perceive such facts as positives. Maybe Camille Paglia perceives them instinctively.
-------------
Paglia's Palin piece includes:

I remember how John F. Kennedy (the first politician I ever campaigned for) electrified young people and transformed our political reality, which was about to emerge from the long, grey slog of the Cold War.

Bay of Pigs. Cuban Missile Crisis. Vietnam. Czechoslovakia. Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. That's a lot of emerging...

Pit Bull Trent Lott with Lipstick?

During the first half of October, the McCain campaign's single biggest personnel expenditure was for Palin's stylist.

Curious behavior for a populist. Is Palin being a dutiful soldier following the McCain campaign's instructions, or is she exhibiting a Pelosian sense of entitlement?

Fashion Plate Palin on Illegal Immigration

The Corner and View from the Right point out that she's for it. Another compassionate conservative. John Derbyshire, correctly, doesn't take excuses.

A child of destitute non-English-speaking refugees, I am strongly pro-immigration, but I am even more strongly for the rule of law[1]. A nation that pursues things like the War on Drugs but refuses to enforce its borders...well, I'll just say the USA's prospects looked bleak in the 1970s but that time we experienced a renaissance...

Enough is enough. I will do nothing to help the McCain-Palin ticket win this election. "McCain-Palin. We'll Wreck the Country Slower." is not a slogan to make me tap my precarious financial resources.

Note to McCain: Duke Cunningham was a war hero too.

Afaic this is now beside the point, but what in heaven is McCain thinking?
---------------------
[1] Strongly as I am for the rule of law, I am just as strongly against a metastasized legal code choked with crimes which are little more than malfeasances of which an influential pressure group disapproves.

/rant

Addendum. Strongly though I am for closing the borders to intruders, I recognize that most of the people who are here illegally were de facto invited. A realistic decent policy should take this into account, but I'm not ready to talk about it until the borders are secure. Using the current illegals as an excuse to keep the borders open is outrageous hypocrisy in defense of the government's criminal behavior on behalf of special interests and against the American public.

Panicking is Patriotic

Liz Ann Sonders, who is Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, says a recession began in December 2007, and she sees signs of the panic selling that usually accompanies a market bottom.

The RNC Strikes Again

Mark Tapscott reports that the Republicans are decking populist Sarah Palin out in six-figure Saks finery (as Tapscott predicted, the Politico did not decline to follow up):

And then they wonder why the American people - most of whom for a dozen years looked to the GOP to fix America, as the party had been promising to do for decades - have mostly decided Republicans are no longer to be believed.

Whatever possessed McCain to turn the newly nominated Palin over to handlers associated with Bush?

But that's the Republicans. Since 1988 the pattern has been to do just enough to arouse my enthusiasm and support, and then WHAM! I was on the verge of sending the Republicans money after the Palin nomination, but this time I held off and I'm relieved that I did.

Unfortunately, this puts a bit of a cloud over Palin. We're entering a recession or--heaven forbid--worse, and Governor Hockey Mom is touring the country as a fashion plate. Is she just being a dutiful soldier following RNC orders, or does she consider the designer outfits her due?

Tapscott concludes:

Short of a top-to-bottom transformation in leadership, ethics, intelligence and principles, it's difficult to see a future for this bunch.

Look at it this way: George Bush will go down in history as a transformational President...

Ayers' Class Gets Him a Pass

Dinocrat quotes the Weekly Standard's Sam Schulman:

Why is Bill Ayers a respectable member of the upper middle class and Sarah Palin contemptible?

I've wondered about that myself, but I finally understand.

Ayres isn't a domestic terrorist; he is a nobleman gone wrong. Naturally, all is forgiven.

I suspect that applies to a number of 60s radicals.

Space Elevator

A few weeks ago, the Japanese announced they are getting serious about a space elevator. The Russians[1] may be stirring too.

Since the Japanese are currently the world's best engineers, they might pull this off.

It would probably be a game-changer insofar as the world balance of power goes. Accordingly, the USA doing it would be preferable afaic, but that's almost beside the big-picture point. What is essential is that humanity do it.

Just as during the chaos and pessimism of the 60s and 70s, the building blocks of the information era were being created,...?
---------------
[1] Although Tsiolkovsky had the original idea of a space elevator, the headline of this piece is unsupported by the text. I don't see corroboration that the Japanese will subcontract manufacturing to the Russians.

Traitor to My Class?

(H/T: Iowahawk)

Dreams from My Ghostwriter?

There are claims that Bill Ayers made essential contributions to Obama's auto(?)biography (H/T: Dinocrat).

Is there pattern-recognition software that could help to reach a conclusion? I seem to recall hearing about programs that test for plagiarism by professional authors or copying/plagiarism by students.

(It might be too late in the game for something like this, even if shown to be true, to turn the race around. It could have been a difference-maker if McCain had been running a coherent campaign instead of indulging in a series of stunts: some brilliant and others erratic, discomfiting, arguably self-disqualifying. Still, 'a week is an eternity in politics'.

I want Obama to lose, but McCain's temperament worries me and I question whether he has campaigned well enough to deserve to win. And a society that appoints a Bill Ayers to be a Distinguished Professor of Education at a state university...what does it deserve?)

Addendum. This looks like a job for a forensic linguist (H/T: Althouse commenter Pogo) or a stylometer: a courageous one, given how Joe the Plumber is being pilloried. In fact, since free software is available, I wonder if Rathergate debunker Charles Johnson is cranking away.

Addendum 20090429. The creator of the above stylometric software does not believe that Ayers ghosted 'Dreams from My Father'.

Addendum 20131203. The above link is dead, but not the post; see here.

Japan's PM : US bank bailout is 'insufficient'

Bush and his enablers got the Europeans looking down their economic noses at us. Now it's the Japanese:

Japan is sitting on more than $950 billion in foreign exchange reserves, second only to China's $1.9 trillion. Together, they control a major pool of funds that could come to the rescue of the West's severely strained financial industry. Options range from helping to provide credit to strapped financial institutions to cash infusions in return for ownership stakes in them.

Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said Tuesday that Japan would be willing to contribute to a rescue led by the International Monetary Fund.

They'll help the ignorant barbarians--for a price, of course.

The IMF (or is it the World Bank?) imposes budgetary restrictions on banana republics it bails out. Might that kind of national humiliation would give our worthless political class a clue? I doubt it.

Addendum. The Chinese, too, are sneering at us. Dr. Doom agrees:

Our new $1 trillion annual deficits will likely cause Russia, China, and the other countries who are funding our spending spree to say, hey, wait a minute, why are we funding this banana republic.

Nationalization, Not Investment or Bailout

The financial crisis has seemed too serious to nitpick about, but I won't ignore the government "investment" in the banking sector.

A number of the big banks didn't want government money, but for practical purposes it was mandatory:

Under a programme described by President Bush as "unprecedented and aggressive", the US treasury will buy minority stakes in nine leading banks including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup. Thousands of community banks will be eligible to follow.

Many of Wall Street's top banks were unwilling to take the money, fearing it would be seen as an admission of weakness, but they were given little choice by the US treasury secretary, Henry Paulson. In a televised address from the White House, Bush stressed that the measures were temporary and that banks would buy back the government's shares once the economy recovers: "These measures are not intended to take over the free market, but to preserve it." [hyperlink is mine, not the Guardian's--gs]

So it is necessary to destroy the free market in order to save it. Having stuck its nose under the tent, the camel will be content. Uh huh.

Intrade or somebody should start a long-term contract to see just how "temporary" those measures will be, especially with an Obama administration.

Addendum 20081018. This piece recalls that "emergency" Depression-era farm bailouts remain in place todday, and the programs have largely changed into corporate welfare from their original purpose of bailing out family farms.)

Three Words: Dollar. Cost. Averaging.

Dinocrat is relieved about today's jump in the markets, but notes:

Of course, it wasn’t until 1954 that the Dow undid the damage that had been done in 1929.

Not to be pedantic, but it took almost 3 years for the October Dow to bottom from its 1929 high. Come to think of it, I do hope my point is pedantic with no relation to the immediate future.

It's been too long since I read The Intelligent Investor, but iirc it states that an investor who began dollar-cost-averaging at the 1929 high would have compounded his money by an annual average of 8% by the time the market returned to the high.

Solitary, Poor, Nasty, Brutish and Short? Cool! When Can We Start?

The WSJ reports how the Swiss--the hardheaded Swiss for heaven's sake--have voted plants' rights:

Beat Keller, a molecular biologist at the University of Zurich,...recently sought government permission to do a field trial of genetically modified wheat that has been bred to resist a fungus. He first had to debate the finer points of plant dignity with university ethicists. Then, in a written application to the government, he tried to explain why the planned trial wouldn't "disturb the vital functions or lifestyle" of the plants. He eventually got the green light.

The rule, based on a constitutional amendment, came into being after the Swiss Parliament asked a panel of philosophers, lawyers, geneticists and theologians to establish the meaning of flora's dignity.
...
"Where does it stop?" asks Yves Poirier, a molecular biologist at the laboratory of plant biotechnology at the University of Lausanne. "Should we now defend the dignity of microbes and viruses?"

Seeking clarity, Dr. Poirier recently invited the head of the Swiss ethics panel to his university. In their public discussion, Dr. Poirier said the new rules are flawed because decades of traditional plant breeding had led to widely available sterile fruit, such as seedless grapes. Things took a surreal turn when it was disclosed that some panel members believe plants have feelings, Dr. Poirier says.

This is a willing return to primitivism. It is much loonier than Lysenkoism or Algorism, which at least have the virtue(!) of being frauds.

Ecuador rolls back the Western imperialist heritage:

In another unusual move, the people of Ecuador last month voted for a new constitution that is the first to recognize ecosystem rights enforceable in a court of law. Thus, the nation's rivers, forests and air are no longer mere property, but right-bearing entities with "the right to exist, persist and...regenerate."

Back to Dr. Keller:

One morning recently, he stood by a field near Zurich where the three-year trial with transgenic wheat is under way. His observations suggest that the transgenic wheat does well in the wild. Yet Dr. Keller's troubles aren't over.

In June, about 35 members of a group opposed to the genetic modification of crops, invaded the test field. Clad in white overalls and masks, they scythed and trampled the plants, causing plenty of damage.

"They just cut them," says Dr. Keller, gesturing to wheat stumps left in the field. "Where's the dignity in that?"

Yeah right, sneer I, channeling the Progressive Soul. And I bet Dr. KKKeller believes says Sarah Palin is a woman and Clarence Thomas is black.

Addendum. The Swiss Constitution is here. See in particular Articles 78 and 120.

Why Liquidation Selling?

Maybe global investors are expressing no confidence in the US government after a $150B bribe to Congress was needed to get the bailout bill passed.

Somebody should do a skit about what it would take to get a declaration of war if today's Congress was in session after Pearl Harbor.

Hopefully we won't see a real-life demo. Would these clowns manage to authorize counteraction against a Mexican incursion into the Southwest? Even if they did, would the courts overrule it?

Ptoi! on Compassionate Conservatism

Great evil is upon us, wails the religious right[1].

They brought it on themselves. Compassionate conservatism is a gateway drug to socialism.
----------------
[1] The Anchoress:

...this election has been co-opted by something dark that has too many tentacles, and too many mindless ant-workers, in too many places.

Too many tentacles? Got it:

Obama == Cthulhu

Something dark with too many mindless ant-workers? Got it:

Michelle == Shub-Niggurath

<serious>The Anchoress would never stoop to race-baiting</serious>, but here's a helpful suggestion to those who would: replace or complement the Cthulhu Mythos with voodoo and the mindless ant-workers with zombies.

Complexity-Induced Decline?

According to a Dinocrat commenter, we're experiencing "how complex and elderly social systems decay and collapse."

I've been meaning to read Joseph Tainter's archeological study of that process. Cf. Glenn Reynolds:

The bailout bill -- once three pages long -- is now the length of a novel and larded with "sweeteners."

Supposedly innovation can counteract complexity-based decline. Unfortunately, much contemporary innovation involves the deliberate fabrication or manipulation of complexity to the overall detriment of society.

Revealing (Imputed) Bush Quote

Bush chairs the meeting with Congressional leaders about the bailout:

After some more give and ake, Sen. Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, presents a five-page list of 192 economists and business school professors who oppose the plan. Bush isn't impressed. "I don't care what somebody on some college campus says," Bush says. Instead, he says he trusts Hank Paulson, who, he says, has more than 35 years of experience and access to more information than those academics on Shelby's list. [Boldface imine.--gs]

Adam Smith? J.M. Keynes? Friedrich Hayek? Milton Friedman?

There's a hint here about what went wrong with the Republican party[1]: the lack of an intellectual foundation[2]. Not just the lack, but the belief that it is unnecessary and even contemptible.
----------------------
[1] The stupidity of addressing a political ally this way during a bipartisan conference is beside the point I'm driving at.
[2] Gingrich may have one, but it's annulled by his being such an obvious opportunist jerk.

Krugman & Meself?!

Three weeks ago, I tainted the Next Right site with "false doomsday preaching"--

Twenty years ago we were the last best hope of man. Ten years ago we were the locomotive of the world economy. Ten years from now, will we be a nuclear-armed banana republic?

Last week, Krugman wrote:

As a friend said last night, we’ve become a banana republic with nukes.

Not the first time I've wondered if I should switch sides...

McCain Surges...Then Stumbles

Proposition. A politician good enough to pull off the upset against Obama would have been good enough to defeat Bush for the nomination in 2000.

The contrapositive is...

"Prison for Dummies"?

Buy it here.

Addendum 20081012. Santos is a convicted drug dealer who has set out to rehabilitate himself within a prison system which is uninterested in rehabilitation. Being radically libertarian about the Drug War doesn't mean I admire drug dealers. Nevertheless, I believe in rehabilitation and wish Santos well with his extraordinary efforts. However, this gives me pause:

"Inside" could earn Santos a lot of money, but federal law prohibits him from profiting off his crimes. He has gotten around the rule by giving the manuscript to sister Julie, who now owns it. If she chooses to set aside the proceeds for her brother for when he is released, that's her prerogative.

That may be her prerogative, but will the government agree that it's his prerogative to accept the money?

Parker on Palin

With a friend like Parker, who needs enemies? Money quote:

Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League.

This ignores a crucial distinction.

To be unready for prime time is not necessarily to be out of one's league.

(Notwithstanding some interleaved constructive advice, Kathryn Jean Lopez piles on:

And, frankly, if it turns out that the “authentic” Palin of rallies and the Republican convention is just good speech delivery in a woman with some good spirit, I want to know that sooner rather than later

To repeat, unready for prime time is not the same as out of one's league)

Addenda:
1. I'd been looking for 44-year-old Palin to get on the national stage in 2012, 2016 or later. Given achievements like her successful negotiation of a new Alaska pipeline, I believed she could climb the learning curve by that time. However, her early entry runs the risk that she may get permanently discredited before she gets her bearings.

2. Gibson and Couric were overtly and covertly hostile, but were they unfair? Palin's pit-bull-with-lipstick joke was a challenge to bring it on. Well, they brought it...

Where is the Turkish Army When We Need Them?

Appalling

Didn't Barney Frank block reform of the housing GSEs?

This morning's news:

Frank blames House GOP for breakdown of deal

Who has the majority?

I've been relentless against Bush and the Congressional GOP for not getting things done when they controlled the government.

Now it's looking like the Democrats will be just as bad if not worse.

Time to Rise above Principle?

A long time ago I heard that expression attributed to Senator Robert Kerr of Oklahoma.

My worry is that, after six DeLay/Lott years of spending like a drunken sailor who just won the lottery, Congressional Republicans may have chosen the

absolutely worst possible time

to begin insisting on frugality, limited government powers, letting the market work, etc.

We might all be much better off if they continue prostituting themselves for just a little longer. Then again, who knows?

'Country First' or 'L'État, C'est Moi'?

Press release from McCain headquarters:

Senator John McCain announced today that, in order to focus on his search for a clue leading the country out of the financial crisis, he is suspending his presidential campaign and replacing running mate Sarah Palin with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. "I thank Governor Palin for her willingness to serve, but Andrew is the man I need," declared McCain. "Who understands the housing disaster better than Bill Clinton's HUD Secretary?"

Kidding aside, McCain's action might be credible if his recent responses to the crisis had been cogent. They weren't and it isn't.

Do we want the loonie or the empty suit?

Is McCain Unfit to Be President?

Consider Will Collier's and Stephen Bainbridge's, and Robert George's comments on McCain's rants about the mortgage crisis. I chime in here and with the third comment here.

George Will:

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?

The point can't be made any better than that.
************
I took an online quiz which presented choices between the candidates' anonymously presented positions, and I overwhelmingly preferred McCain's.

Then again, I know what a Republican politician's solemn commitment is worth.
************
McCain is slipping on Intrade--and he deserves to.

Next-Day Addendum. The right blogosphere did not exactly explode in indignation at Will's column.

We Need a Commission

There's plenty of blame to go around for the current financial crisis, but I'm not sure whether it should be evenly distributed. Here's a high-grade amoral ploy: the faction that primarily caused a given problem makes political hay by pinning the blame on the faction that tried to prevent it[1].

Something like the Challenger Commission or 9/11 Commission is needed, i.e. a council of elders composed of people with reputations for objectivity and integrity. Put some credentialed foreigners on it too.

Who were the Republican legislators that helped the Democrats block the regulatory Fannie proposals that failed a few years ago?
***************
Nobody seems to be talking about putting the federal budget so we're better positioned to deal with the next crisis when it comes along.
------------------------
[1] Not that I wrote "a given problem". There are plenty of problems and plenty of responsibility for them, and I don't doubt that both parties and multiple factions are trying the ploy I mentioned.

Flagrant Market Manipulation

SEC Press Release Friday September 19, 2008: "SEC Halts Short Selling of Financial Stocks to Protect Investors and Markets; Commission Also Takes Steps to Increase Market Transparency and Liquidity" How does banning short selling increase liquidity? That would be 799 financial stocks, btw. SEC to market makers: never mind, short away!

SEC Press Release Sunday September 21, 2008: "Statement of SEC Division of Trading and Markets Regarding Technical Amendments to Short Sale Order"--

...However, this exception now requires that, for new positions, a market maker may not sell short if the market maker knows a customer or counterparty is increasing an economic net short position in the shares of the Included Financial Firm.

In effect, they're not allowing investors to buy puts.

Doubtless entirely of its own volition--

The SEC has delegated to each national securities exchange the authority to identify additional listed companies that qualify for inclusion in the list of companies covered by the revised prohibition.

--, the New York Stock Exchange has added 31 companies to its do-not-short list, including major foreign banks, General Motors, and the icon General Electric.

Such flailing around does not increase my confidence in the powers-that-be. If things are really serious, they should close the market and coordinate a coherent response.

Indicators?

During the Friday bailout rally, a number of ETFs--SPY, QQQQ, MDY, XLF, etc.--closed below their opening prices (which, of course, were up sharply over the previous close). Now premarket prices are down close to 2%.

Was This a Smear of Obama?

After this column, the right blogosphere was aflame with accusations that Obama had violated the Logan Act, which forbids unauthorized US citizens from intervening into American diplomatic disputes.

Oops. Never mind...

I must say that the right blogosphere hasn't exactly been cluttered with retractions...

The Corner Thinks This is 'Brilliant'?!

Or is Palin starting to believe her own hype?

Gov. Sarah Palin is now talking about "a Palin and McCain administration."

I've also heard her refer to McCain as "my running mate" -- a term I don't recall ever hearing a VP nominee use when discussing the guy at the top of the ticket.

This is the first meaningful negative I've seen about Palin--and it's a big one.

Ambition is healthy. Overweening ambition is dangerous. That applies to Palin every bit as much as it applies to Obama.

The jury remains out, but maybe Krauthammer will get to say "I told you so" after all.

Couple this with McCain's ignorant demagoguery against the SEC Chairman, and you see serious mistakes by a campaign that needs to play a near-perfect game.
**********
Two quibbles about Palin (but quibbles count in a close election):

1. All her photos look more or less the same.
2. When I'm in a bad mood, she looks like a younger version of Harriet Miers.

Award a Point to Obama

"John McCain can't decide whether he's Barry Goldwater or Dennis Kucinich."

Wham! That oughta leave a mark.

(Via Jake Tapper, or see here.)

A Modest Proposal for a Stock Market Regulation

If we're going to regulate, let's regulate effectively:

No common or preferred stock shall be sold in the United States except at a profit to the seller.

This way stocks will only go up!

Embarrassed afterthought. Mea culpa.

If an investor acquired a stock sufficiently under the current price, of course the price can decline while he sells it at a profit.

I don't have this securities-regulation thing down pat yet, but if first you don't succeed...

The correct answer lies in the uptick rule. Don't just reinstate it. Give it teeth!

No common or preferred stock shall be traded in the United States except at a price greater than or equal to the preceding price.

Take that, you unAmerican pessimists!

I'm Not a Fan of Larry Kudlow

Kudlow, one day before the AIG bailout (see here or here):

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is the man of the hour. This weekend he drew a clear line in the sand: no more federal bailouts. Not for Lehman Brothers. Not for Merrill Lynch. Not for anyone, at least as of this writing.

At least he's noticed that we're no longer in the Goldilocks Economy with King Dollar...

Uptick Rule, Again

One of the country's most famous traders, who spurned incredible wealth to heed a call to public service, has advocated--in a laudably measured manner, whether one agrees or not--reexamination of the uptick rule.
*********
Seriously:

Assume for the sake of argument that the market is locked into a downward spiral and a catastrophic crash can only be avoided by external intervention.

Ad hoc, kneejerk regulatory responses are even more transparent attempts at manipulation than what short sellers are allegedly doing. At worst, such responses, coming on the heels of political/bureaucratic incompetence and phony reassurances from Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, et al, will only aggravate the panic. At best, kneejerk regulation is likely to lock in distortions that will impair the competitiveness of US markets going forward.

If the threat is not catastrophic, let the market do its work of creative destruction[1]. If the threat is catastrophic, close the market for a week or two and coordinate a solution with a critical mass of domestic and foreign heavy hitters.
-------------
[1] There is also the alternative of letting the market unwind the mess even if the threat is catastrophic.

Preciousss, We Sstill Hatesss Nasssty Short Sellerss

I keep saying the following. The markets should treat buyers and sellers evenhandedly. To that end, the SEC prefaced its repeal of the uptick rule with a crackdown on naked shorting, and the agency continues to implement that crackdown. I don't favor reimposition of the uptick rule, but if the rule is brought back it should be balanced by a downtick rule on margin purchases.

Dinocrat notes that Jim Cramer has resumed slamming the repeal of the uptick rule. Jim Cramer readily went long-short when he ran a hedge fund but his current customers are retail investors who primarily go long (and his stock is down over 60%). This Jim Cramer:

The last two market tops -- one in the spring of 2000, the other last October, when the Dow pushed through all-time highs -- had little in common...(p)Here's what both market tops did have in common, at least for Cramer: He buried his head under the pillow and pretended logic made no sense. He told investors to discard everything they'd learned over the years as nonsense. He told investors to keep buying stocks just because it felt good. Without peeking, I'm sure you can guess the outcomes.

Cramer is an energetic entrepreneur, but I don't find him credible as a policy wonk. Where were his calls for the uptick rule while the oil price was dropping?

Vodkapundit's Will Collier notices somebody else who is not cut out to be a policy wonk:

Just When I Think It’s Safe To Stop Holding My Nose…McCain goes and says something really, really stupid:

John McCain said in an interview with CNBC Tuesday that...regulators also need to “do a better job in reining in short sellers.”

Unbelievably dumb. Nancy Pelosi dumb. Herbert Hoover dumb.

Yep. Couple that with McCain's sneaky campaigning for immigration amnesty, and I'm glad I restrained my impulse to donate when McCain picked Palin.

Who's Responsible for the Mortgage Mess?

My uninformed guess is that the Democrats started the corruption, but support or acquiescence from key Republicans was essential to keep it going past the danger point.

We know where the buck is supposed to stop[1].

The longer we go without ubiquitous comparisons to Enron and without Congressional calls for prosecutions, the likelier it is that the primary malefactors are Democrats. Nevertheless, the Democrats might succeed in finessing the issue so as to seize the White House and increase their Congressional majorities[2]. Addendum: See here.

Addendum: See here.
*************
[1] The administration has long been aware that the mortgage situation was precarious. Did it back off as a quid pro quo for Congress's going along with George's Excellent Nation Building Adventures?

[2] But they'll fix it once they have power. Sure they will.

The Correct Line of Attack on Palin

Palin mania on the right is nowhere nearly as extreme as the left's Obama mania, but a comparison does come to mind.

The McCain used mockery to counteract Obama mania. IMO direct attacks would not have worked; if anything, they would have boomeranged. I suspect that the Obama campaign was prepared for direct attacks, but derision caught them flat-footed.

So what is the left thinking as it hysterically spews deranged venom at Palin? An element of truth is an essential ingredient of successful mockery. They should be working along the lines of SNL and Lisa Nova.

IMO McCain still has an uphill climb to the Presidency. All the Democrats have to do to win is recover their composure and campaign competently. All they have to do is not be the 1986 Red Sox...but Gore's managing to lose in 2000 is not an encouraging precedent.

Afterthought. As an antiPalin hit piece, the Lisa Nova interview skit is too blatant. The skit's Gibson actually comes off better than the real Gibson did. The perfect touch would have been to make fun of Gibson too while keeping the balance of disadvantage with Palin.

Chinese CPUs

CNET reports that the Chinese are developing their own computer chips:

..."Their motivation is pretty clear. They don't want to be totally dependent on the outside world for something as important as microprocessors," said Tom Halfhill, an analyst at In-Stat. "The most interesting part of the chip is that they're adding about 200 new instructions to assist with x86 compatibility...It won't be an x86 processor. But the 200 instructions will optimize the (Intel) performance...I don't think they're doing this to compete with (Intel) x86 per se (but) If somebody has to run some software that's only available to x86 you can do it."

Halfhill may be indulging in wishful thinking. On the other hand, to date Chinese economic expansion has been based on pricing more than quality. The Chinese may (or may not) find that building something as complex as a CPU is harder than they anticipate.

Gibson vs. Palin

Charles Johnson has posted a ten-minute clip.

Both by body language and occasional quavers in her voice, Palin seemed nervous. She kept trying to shift into the person-to-person informality in which she is comfortable, but gravitas was needed. Palin did about what might be expected from a first-term governor who has unexpectedly been thrust into a hostile national spotlight. Her insecurity is the counterpart of the teleprompter-less Obama's uh's and um's.

Gibson was a pompous jerk who deserved a cream pie in the face. IMO Palin's objectively best move was to counterattack like George H.W. Bush did during Dan Rather's 1988 ambush interview. She doesn't yet have the experience to be confident about using such a tactic, but it might have worked anyway.

Hostile interviewer Gibson underperformed more badly than Palin did. Most of us have had to endure sessions with smug, arrogant, unfair, entrenched, incompetent authority figures--teachers, bosses, interviewers, reviewers, bureaucrats, etc.--, and that's how Gibson came across. Many voters, women in particular, may get so angry at Gibson that they will overlook Palin's deficiencies. Gibson made a much stronger case for media bias than he made against Palin.

There is considerable merit to Glenn Reynolds' suggestion that candidates bring their own cameramen to interviews. I can't help wondering if the VP debate will be manipulated via preferentially leaked gotcha questions.

The Gibson interview was an early round of a match between a fast-learning rookie and a bunch of know-it-all veterans. Hopefully Palin will correct her deficiencies faster than the MSM correct theirs.

Addendum. My impression is consistent with UPI's Martin Sieff's:

...Tactically, she made the mistake of trying to be friendly and informal with Gibson, who assumed a superior, professorial and critical stance toward her. She would have been far better going on the attack to rattle him.

Never Forget

If life had gotten differently, I might very possibly have been near the top of the Towers that day.

Psychological Threshold?

As I write, for the first time the Intrade odds have shifted to slightly favor McCain (although they are essentially tied).

Clearly McCain has taken the initiative, but he has had no setbacks for quite a while whereas Obama has been stumbling.

The debates are still ahead. The political terrain favors the Democrats, but they can no longer win merely by avoiding mistakes (unless the Republicans make serious ones).
************
Perhaps the worst outcome for the country would be to have Obama eke out a very narrow win: e.g. via the House or the courts, or while losing the popular vote. Coming in a strongly Democratic year, that would delegitimize his Presidency before he ever took office.

A Modest Proposal to Democrats and Republicans

People people...all this squabbling about Obama's and Palin's limited experience...tsk tsk. A little sweet reason is needed here.

Consider that Vladimir Putin was only a field-grade officer, but he became a popular and successful president.

Thank you.

On the Academic Elite

A long time ago somebody said to me, "It doesn't bother me that academia is crazy. My neighbors are crazy, but their quirks tend to cancel each other out. What bothers me is that most academics are crazy the same way."

It's Still Early...

...and a week is an eternity in politics, and there will be setbacks, and I don't want to jinx the McCain-Palin ticket (about which I still haven't fully made up my mind).

It's a real battle now, but the terrain still favors the Democrats.

But if McCain pulls it off, the only comparison that comes to mind is Dewey-Truman.

Nevertheless,...

And the Beat Goes On...

I looked at Yahoo! Finance to check on Fred and Fannie.

There was a headline about the auto industry. Last year an energy bill authorized $25B in loans. I hadn't known that energy independence can be achieved by government subsidies to noncompetitive US automakers...

But that wasn't the headline. The headline was that the industry wants $25B ($50B?) more.

The White House said last week it was talking to members of Congress and the industry about the financing.

Thanks, Dubya! Btw, what's next year's deficit, you fiscally responsible Harvard MBA Republican you? $400B? $500B?
*******************
Twenty years ago we were the last best hope of man. Ten years ago we were the locomotive of the world economy. Ten years from now, will we be a nuclear-armed banana republic?

Assuming we're not one already.

Sarah Palin's Debut

Successful speech. Two thoughts:

1. Her attacks on the Democratic ticket might have seemed excessive if she herself wasn't being attacked so viciously.

2. Afaic Larry Kudlow correctly asked where the emphasis on the economy is.

I've been noting for a while that the S&P 500 is below its value at Bush's inauguration: that is, below its value in a dollar which has itself become debased. The media are starting to notice.

The Palin nomination was a game-changer, but IMO the failure to address the economy (unless McCain's speech does so) leaves the Democrats positioned to pivot to that issue. Note to the Obama brain trust: anyone for 'It's the economy, stupid'?
********************
Dinocrat:

There continues to be something surreal about this year’s presidential campaign...What’s going on that people experience such intensity of feeling about mere politicians?

Part of it might be emotional reaction to the perversion of political discourse begun by Read-My-Lips Bush, continued by the Clinton-era GOP Congress, and consummated by the Bush administration (and by today's Democrats of course). The public knows the country is on the wrong track, but the wise guys have set the system up so adult speech is political suicide.

Addendum 20080925. Not just speech, behavior.

The public knows the country is on the wrong track, but the wise guys have set the system up so adult behavior is political suicide.

McCain and Palin

Dinocrat asks:

Why do so many commentators (enthusiastically, instantly) jump to a conclusion when there is so much evidence yet to be considered?

IMO her enemies want to knock her out before she gets her bearings on the national stage. They have no case for disqualification on the merits, so they have to be fast, sustained, and dirty. Apparently some of the mud is starting to stick.

Palin is competitive and a quick study, but she can’t learn instantaneously.

Once McCain picked her, afaic it became his responsibility to protect her in the early going.
**************
Intrade’s odds that she’ll be withdrawn currently are above 10%.

Currently there is no sign of Palin on the convention front page.
**************
I was about to donate…and then I remembered ‘Read my lips’.

Jack Risko’s call for restraint is spot on. I trust that my unease is groundless.

I trust, but I’ll verify.

Palin Today

The good news is that Obama has been forgotten and Palin/McCain are getting all the publicity.

The bad news is that the publicity is about Palin's 17-year-old daughter's pregnancy[1]--and about Palin lawyering up for Troopergate (documentation is here and here) and being threatened with a subpoena.

I want to believe that McCain is ready for this. It's important that he promptly demonstrate control of the narrative.
*****************
[1] Young Bristol has my sympathy and I hope things work out for her. Perhaps she was foolish or perhaps an accident occurred. If she made a mistake, it seems a youthful and human one. Take care and good luck, young lady.

As for Supermom, maybe she could have spent less time being super and more time being mom.

Why Palin?

Some think that McCain is trying for a blowout win.

I disagree. While I wouldn't go as far as the Politico, IMO McCain realized he had made a fight of it but was still on track to lose. Therefore he took a risk. He increased his chance of winning at the price of increased risk.

My cognition coldly informs me that the Palin thing could fall flat or blow up. Nevertheless, it's been twenty years since I've felt enthusiastic about anything the Republicans have shown me.

This is not the best-known passage from 'The Man in the Arena', but it is a good one:

Well for these men if they succeed; well also, though not so well, if they fail, given only that they have nobly ventured, and have put forth all their heart and strength.

When John McCain introduces himself to Theodore Roosevelt on the Other Side (if there be an Other Side), he can look him in the eye.

Palin

I thought that Palin needed seasoning and that remains a concern--how will she do against Biden abetted by a vicious media?--, but I endorse the decision now that it's made. (The AP's "news report" is chuckle spitting venom: very auspicious sign.)

McCain knows he's running in a heavily Democratic year. He's made a race out of it instead of the Obama runaway that might be expected, but the odds still favor the Democrats. (And they continue to do so even after the Palin pick, but the Democrats' after-convention glow has been cut abruptly short.)

To make it to the Oval Office, McCain must continue to be bold--and he was. Not only have I been a Palin well-wisher, but my assessment of McCain's Presidential quality has climbed sharply.

The Republicans have let me down so often that I'm not going to get carried away, but this might be more than the lesser of two evils. This might be a ticket I can affirmatively support.

Brilliant choice!

Addendum. Charles Johnson reports that Palin is a creationist.

I didn't know that and it probably won't change my vote, but I need clarification before giving the 'affirmative support' mentioned above.

IMO for all his faults, Bill Clinton was trying to look toward the future. One of my many criticisms of Bush is that his America seems like a multiracial version of the 1950s. I've repeatedly posted that today's financial markets tell us that the country's future looks worse than it did when Bush took office.

Our opponents and enemies will progress technologically even if we choose not to.

There's a saying in some circles that 20th-century technology was driven by physics whereas this century's will be driven by biology. That's too glib to be correct, but it has elements of truth.

Sometimes it's correct to stand athwart history yelling Stop!...and sometimes it's not.

Addendum #2. The surge in energy on the right blogosphere is palpable. Instead of chanting their planned exegeses on the holy words of the Obamessiah, the left is diverted to attack Palin.

McCain was likely on track to lose narrowly--quite a feat under the circumstances--, but, per an LGF commenter, the VP pick could be a game-changer.

Even though he's a centrist, with one stroke McCain might be resurrecting the Reagan coalition.


Addendum #3. Apparently Palin favors teaching creationism in public schools. I'm with Althouse commenter Alan:

Why is it when the GOP puts forward a pro-life candidate he or she seems to always carry additional kook baggage?

This is probably a showstopper for me. I'll sleep on it, but I don't think I'll be able to vote for the McCain-Palin ticket.

If America wants to turn itself into a backwater--a nuclear-armed backwater, heaven help us--while the rest of the developed and emerging worlds moves into the 21st century, my conscience requires me to speak up but it does not demand more.

Update #4 (20080901). If Charles Johnson, who is at least as adamant against teaching creationism than I am, is mollified, so, for the moment, am I. See also a thread at Chicago Boyz.

The Good Ole Elastic Claws

The NYT reports:

A woman who worked as a part-time booker for the escort service that the authorities say was patronized by Eliot Spitzer pleaded guilty on Monday to a conspiracy charge.

A part-time booker for victimless crimes. From Tanya Hollander's confession:

...by continuing to work for QAT Consulting in this capacity, through to approximately March 6, 2008, I caused to be used facilities in interstate commerce which facilitated the carrying on of an unlawful activity, namely a business enterprise involving prostitution offenses.

Let's repeat:

...I caused to be used facilities in interstate commerce which facilitated the carrying on of...prostitution offenses.

A regular Dillinger, this woman!

Hopefully the judge will have the common sense to give Hollander a slap on the wrist and let her go. Unfortunately, the American Gulag is always looking for bodies. Michael Farkas is Hollander's lawyer:

Mr. Farkas said after court that Ms. Hollander had also offered her assistance, but that prosecutors “did not see fit to offer her a cooperation agreement.”

And there are always prosecutors looking to pad their stats. Of course, it's possible that there is material prejudicial to Hollander that did not make it into the news reports; it's possible that the prosecution recommended a lesser penalty than jail time but the Times did not report it. Nevertheless:

...I caused to be used facilities in interstate commerce which facilitated the carrying on of...prostitution offenses.

Maybe the legislators who are busy manufacturing crimes should create an elastic offense called abuse of prosecutorial discretion (willful or negligent).

Update 20100927. As it happens, Holder did not go to jail. She was put on probation; the prosecution had requested a sentence of six months of home confinement.

Afaik such common sense from the bench and the prosecutors does not always happen.

Another Reason They're Called the Stupid Party?

For a party that is on track to get whacked in the Congressional election, trails slightly in national Presidential polls, and trails significantly in Presidential betting odds, the GOP seems awfully cocky.

I don't mean determined and upbeat. I mean cocky.

Another 'Successful Test' of Missile Defense

Chicagoboyz report and tsk-tsk Obama's opposition.

Twenty-five years after Reagan's speech, they finally discriminate between a warhead and a single penaid.
******************
The Left has global warming. The Right has missile defense.

Concern about global warming might motivate development of geoengineering technologies that can cope with serious climate change if and when it occurs.

SDI was so easy to defeat that for the longest time I couldn't formulate a guess as to why it drove Soviet negotiators berserk. I suppose it's because a technological breakthrough, however unlikely it might seem, would completely tilt the strategic balance. Addendum: Maybe even back in the mid-1980s, the Soviets recognized, in effect if not in so many words, the emerging importance of Moore's Law.

Unfortunately, both global warming and missile defense are heavily influenced by special interests whose agendas are distinct from the ostensible issues.

Barry, Milt and Fred

Obama in Time:

...I was reading Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayak [sic: Time misspells the Nobel Laureate's name], and I was growing up when Ronald Reagan was ascendant. So the political culture of my formative years was much more conservative.

It partly explains why, if you look at not just my politics, but also I think who I am as a person—in some ways, I'm pretty culturally conservative. I was always suspicious of dogma, and the excesses of the left and the right. One of my greatest criticisms of the Republican Party over the last 20 years is that it's not particularly conservative. I can read conservatives from an earlier era—a George Will or a Peggy Noonan—and recognize wisdom, because it has much more to do with respect for tradition and the past and I think skepticism about being able to just take apart a society and put it back together. Because I do think that communities and nations and families aren't subject to that kind of mechanical approach to change. But when I look at Tom DeLay or some of the commentators on Fox these days, there's nothing particularly conservative about them.

Obama plays on libertarian/conservative dejection under the Bush/Rove/DeLay/Lott regime. "They've been playing you for suckers ever since Read-My-Lips Bush," he implies[1], presumably with voter suppression in mind. "Are you going to fall for it again?"

Obama about growing up overseas:

If anything, it has reinforced my belief in American exceptionalism. One of the things that happens when you live overseas is you realize how special America is— our values, our ideals, our Constitution, our rule of law, the idea of equality and opportunity. Those are things that we often take for granted, and it's only when you get out of the country that you see the majority of the world doesn't enjoy those same privileges.

It wasn't an accident that this guy beat the Clinton machine[2].

[1] I'm putting words in his mouth, not quoting.
[2] But I bet that Bill would have taken him.