December 3, 2008

Good News! No Depression Ahead...Probably

Intrade currently has the chance of a 2009 US depression as less than one in seven (down from one in five around election time).

At the moment the contract is currently on the front page. Alternatively, click on 'Financial' in the lefthand column of the front page. Then click on 'Economic Numbers' in the subheading.

Addendum. Back when all seemed under control, NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini sounded the alarm about the crisis and earned the nickname 'Dr. Doom'. He believes the worst is still to come but does not expect a depression.

Addendum 20081225. The Intrade chance of a 2009 depression has risen to 30%.

Ho ho ho.

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