Now Intrade is down because of financial irregularities, yet neither Reynolds nor Caplan has seen fit to mention it. To be wrong is one thing; not to acknowledge it is egregious.
(Prediction markets sound like a good idea to me, by which I mean that under conscientious management the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, e.g. steps will be taken to ensure that people who commit an atrocity do not profit from betting on it. However, good ideas can attract fraudsters.)
So I was wrong about the CFTC's decision. I was also wrong when I supported the Three