September 14, 2012

Obama Gains at Intrade

As I write, Obama has 2:1 odds at Intrade. He has been moving up steadily despite the Mideast, jobless claims, gas prices, and Romney bouncing back on Rasmussen. Why?

1. Intrade is being gamed by Obama supporters with deep pockets.

2. Intrade speculators are wrong.

3. Intrade speculators expect Romney to lose the debates.

4. Intrade speculators believe the debates will be rigged so Romney loses.

5. Intrade speculators expect an October surprise that will get Obama reelected.

6. Intrade speculators correctly recognize that this is no longer a country which dumped Jimmy Carter for Ronald Reagan, or maybe they correctly recognize that Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan.

Update 20120915: A week ago, Powerline touched on this here and here, as did Andy McCarthy.

Update 20120917: Patrick Caddell unloads on Romney here. The New Republic's William Galston does so here. The base is not happy.

For that matter, as he criticized the administration for the deaths in Libya, what the hell was he thinking during those smirks? A bigger image is here.

And what genius decided to exclude Sarah Palin and Michael Steele from the GOP convention?

Update 20121009. More Caddell here.

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