June 22, 2008

Hope and Change are Coming to Oil Markets

Obama has released his plan to curb energy speculation. Oil executives are designated as "independent experts" when their views support Obama's. On the agenda:
*Ensure That U.S. Energy Futures Cannot be Traded on Unregulated Offshore Exchanges

*Work with Other Countries to Coordinate Regulation of Oil Futures Markets
A conscientious regulator's job is difficult because there are legitimate interests pro and con any change in the degree of regulation; moreover, there is a plenitude of domestic and foreign wise guys waiting to pounce on any regulatory misstep. In my inexpert opinion, inadequately regulated markets tend to become rigged or manipulated; in a globalized economy, over-regulated markets tend to move offshore (as IPOs have done because of Sarbanes-Oxley).
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The regulatory measures are part of Obama's "comprehensive plan to make America a global energy leader", but I gather that the 'comprehensiveness' does not involve drilling.

Plan A is to regulate and tax. Is Plan B, currently not openly spoken of, to ration? Plan C, to nationalize?

Update. The people who want to sue OPEC are also proposing regulations. From Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich.:
Stupak countered by saying the new proposed legislation is "the most comprehensive approach" that has yet been offered. He suggests closing all loopholes, including bilateral out-of-market trades, foreign trades on the InterContinental Exchange, swaps, and hedging exemptions. As a result, he believes excessive speculation will be stopped by complete oversight of the markets.
As I read that paragraph, Stupak is asserting jurisdiction over every single oil transaction in the world.

And if the rest of the world ignores us? Well, we'll just stop buying their oil. That'll show them.

Instead of ignoring us, they might make us a low-priority customer. The American price of oil would thereby become greater than the international price. Accordingly, there would be no reason to express the international price in dollars.
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Opponents of domestic drilling say that it would take ten years for the new oil to come online. (How long would it take "alternative" energy?) It would take much less than ten years to make a bad situation worse.

A cautionary note: historically, the term 'speculators' has been used in an antisemitic context.

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